Trump’s Golden Dome – Canada should steer well clear of this American boondoggle

Despite all logic some bad ideas seem destined to repeatedly arise in human affairs. One such hardy perennial is the illusion that the US can eliminate its vulnerability to ballistic missile attack by creating an elaborate shield over its territory. The first iteration of this vision was championed by President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. His “Strategic Defence Initiative” (aka “Star Wars”) projected a fantastical array of space-based interceptors alongside an enlarged ground based ballistic missile defence system.

The space-based dimension of this plan was soon abandoned due to prohibitive cost and technological obstacles while ground based missile defence was kept alive over successive administrations yielding a limited system of 44 interceptors. As a result of political direction, the Missile Defence Agency charged with the development of this system was exempted from the usual and stringent Pentagon criteria for the procurement of major systems.

The system was designed to defend against a limited ballistic missile attack by a “rogue” state (cue North Korea), but its test results to date are hardly reassuring in this respect. The kinetic interceptors have barely managed a 50% success rate in heavily scripted tests that apparently do not reflect realistic conditions (amongst others that counter measures will be employed by the adversary). Even the most hawkish politician must realize that a “leakage” rate of 50% in an attack on the homeland by nuclear warheads would represent an unacceptable level of devastation. Arguably the only groups that have benefited from the almost 50 year pursuit of national ballistic missile defence in the US has been the defence industry and their allies in Congress. In the view of one American analyst: “national missile defense is the longest running scam in the history of the Department of Defense. And what the Trump Administration has now done is to revive an old, discredited idea, pump it full of new expectations, and market it as an instant fix to America’s vulnerability to ballistic missiles.”

Not encumbered by the dismal track record of strategic ballistic missile defence efforts, President Donald Trump has now embraced the idea of a comprehensive defensive shield that would defend North America against all forms of missiles. In a policy statement released on 27 January 2025 he promised an “Iron Dome” for America, although this was soon renamed “Golden Dome” (perhaps out of deference to the “golden goose” this 175 billion dollar project will represent for the defence industry). The President seems to have failed to grasp that Israel’s “Iron Dome” system (which inspired his vision) has succeeded as a result of the relatively small size of its territory that has to be defended and the relatively slow re-entry speed of the short and medium range ballistic missiles it has countered. These advantages would not pertain to the territory of the US (let alone North America) against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with re-entry speeds of 7 kilometres a second.

The new Canadian government has evidently been in some discussion with the Americans regarding this venture, although Prime Minister Carney’s pronouncements on the subject have been rather vague. Still, they are suggestive of a positive disposition to participate. Nevertheless, caution and a full consideration of the implications of involvement (and not just the military ones) must be exercised.

Indeed, there are four main reasons for Canada to decline any further engagement in ballistic missile defence as envisioned by the “Golden Dome” plan. Such a polite demurral would also be in keeping with the stance of previous Canadian governments (from Mulroney to Martin) when faced with similar overtures from the US in the past:

1. Strategic ballistic missile defence has not worked and there is no indication that it will ever be able to solve effectively the myriad of problems that arise when seeking to negate an attack in the unique conditions of outer space by a peer adversary capable of utilizing sophisticated counter-measures.

2. The “Golden Dome” project is provocative to nuclear-armed peers such as Russia and China and is likely to undercut what remains of strategic stability. The easiest way for an adversary to respond to a missile defence system is to overwhelm it with more offensive missiles. No nuclear peer will stand idly by if that state believes its capacity for a retaliatory strike could be negated by a defensive system created by its opponent. The probable result will be to provoke a further spiral in the nuclear arms race currently underway and kibosh any efforts to revive arms control amongst nuclear weapon states.

3. The “Golden Dome” envisages the placement of interceptors in outer space to attempt to hit incoming ICBMs during their “boost phase” (the few minutes after launch before the missiles have reached outer space). Analysts have expressed doubt that any such space-based system would work (it would require hundreds if not thousands of orbiting platforms to ensure sufficient proximity to launch sites to effect an interception). Like ground based ballistic missile defence it would also be open to counter-measures directed against it. Such a move to “weaponize” outer space would also upend decades of efforts by Canada and others to prevent exactly this fate for a realm that is ostensibly to be used for “peaceful purposes” (as per the 1967 Outer Space Treaty).

4. The entire “Golden Dome” scheme (perhaps “scam” is the more apt term) will entail eye-watering levels of expenditure with scant prospect of actually achieving an effective defence. The bill for any Canadian participation will be huge. Canada can ill afford diverting billions of dollars to feather the beds of contractors on both sides of the border.

So, if not through engagement with the strategic defence aspects of “Golden Dome” what can a Canadian government offer its American ally regarding enhanced defence of the continent?

Fortunately, the answer is in hand with the existing commitment of Ottawa to spend $40 billion over 20 years for NORAD modernization. This could involve upgraded sensor arrays (like the over-the-horizon radar Canada is sourcing from Australia) that will enable enhanced monitoring of the air and maritime approaches to our north and provide a critical input to the surveillance and early-warning roles carried out by the binational NORAD command. It could also engage in the development of better defence systems against so-called “air-breathing threats” such as cruise missiles which also figure as one component of the “Golden Dome” plan 

Adhering to the existing plans to modernize NORAD provides the Canadian government with a defined, feasible and important contribution to continental defence while avoiding the pit-falls represented by the more fanciful and costly aspects of Donald Trump’s vision.