Syria’s first post-Assad election: a pivotal moment for internal and regional stability

An election taking place halfway across the world will have serious consequences, not only for the 100,000 Syrians resettled in Canada who have close personal and familial ties with their home country, but also implications for Canada’s immigration and foreign policy.

“The election is a bellwether moment, and should indicate which direction Syria is heading in” says Prof. Eliott Tepper of Ottawa’s Carleton University, a specialist in international relations, adding that Canada should be concerned about the outcome of this first attempt at establishing constitutional rule in Syria because the fate of Syria – which shares borders with Lebanon, Israel, Türkiye, Iraq and Jordan – will have significant implications for regional security.

A major challenge for the transitional government of Syria, as it prepares for the election, is to smooth over internal divisions, rooted in ancient animosities and exacerbated by the 14-year civil war in which some of the country’s multi religious and multi ethnic groups were supporters of former President Bashar al-Assad, some were allied with the opposition, and others were more or less neutral.  Complicating this military and political landscape was the fact these opposing groups were supported by foreign powers such as the US and Russia, with conflicting agendas.

There are compelling reasons for the Canadian government to closely watch the outcome of this landmark election. Since 2011, Canada has committed almost $969 million in response to the Syrian crisis, including $653.5 million in humanitarian assistance, $233 million in development assistance and $82 million in security and stabilization assistance to the region.

This year, after the fall of Assad, and the establishment of a transitional government led by Ahmed al Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammed a-Sharaa), Canada has committed over $100 million in humanitarian assistance. This is in addition to over $4.7 billion that Canada provided since 2016 to Syria and countries hosting Syrian refugees including Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.

In humanitarian terms, and as mentioned, over 100,000 Syrian refugees have been resettled in Canada since 2015 through government and private sponsorships, and the blended visa program.

Syria’s multicultural, multireligious minority communities greeted the fall of Assad in December 2024 with cautious optimism. But now they are far from sanguine about the upcoming election. Indeed, they are deeply concerned that the election process has already disenfranchised them, they fear it will serve to legitimize and prolong the rule of an aggressive Islamist government, which has unleashed a campaign of terror against Alawites, Druze, Christians and others who don’t conform to their narrow vision of Sunni Islam.

In late August, a special committee of UN experts issued a stern statement condemning the recent wave of violence including murders, enforced disappearances, and sexual crimes against women and girls targeting the Druze, a religious group deemed heretic by Sunni Muslim extremists.

Other minority Syrian communities – Alawites, and Christians – have reported similar attacks and massacres aided or condoned by the interim government.

All minority groups are unanimous in their condemnation of the upcoming election, scheduled to be held in Syria from 15 to 20 September – one which they describe as a charade, because it violates the terms of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, designed as a blueprint and a roadmap for a democratic future for Syria. Their concerns are based on the fact that the upcoming election will not give ordinary Syrians the opportunity to cast their votes. Of the 210 parliamentarians, 140 will be chosen by local electoral committees, and 70 appointed directly the president.

Furthermore, the transitional government has announced that the election has been indefinitely postponed in Kurdish areas, citing security reasons for their decision. This has drawn strong criticism from the authorities of the Kurdish- controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) who contend that it is blatant political exclusion, that deprives nearly five million Syrians of their political rights, noting that it represents “a clear disregard for the suffering of Syrians and the exclusion of nearly half the population from political participation, whether inside the country or among refugees and the diaspora.” They also deny that their region is unsafe as the transitional government claims, and assert that their areas are among the most stable in the country.

Bahjat Hussein is an Ottawa resident and a member of the Rojava Kurdish Association. In Syria, he worked as Education Manager for the AANES but left his country after narrowly escaping an assassination attempt in which his car was bombed. “Parliaments are considered to be democratic institutions around the world, and typically include diverse parties and individuals, some loyal to the ruling party and others in opposition,” he said. “This will not be the case with the parliament the transitional government of Syria is seeking to establish. In the absence of any democratic election process, and by excluding the Kurdish region, this parliament will only serve as a consultative council to the President to enforce Sharia law. The interim government justifies the exclusion of Kurdish regions on security grounds. In reality these are among the safest regions in Syria. In the AANES there is peaceful coexistence among all communities – Kurds, Arabs and Christians.”

Syria is also home to an ancient Christian community, with roots going back to the dawn of the Christian era, though their numbers have dwindled from 2.5 million in 2011, to approximately 500,000 to one million in 2025. The reduction is largely due to war time emigration to countries such as Canada and the US. They too are deeply troubled by the prospect of an election that they fear would solidify the powers of what they consider to be a hostile government.

“All Christian communities in Syria are deeply concerned about the election but feel they have no choice but to wait, pray and hope for the best,” said Rich Ghazal, executive director of In Defense of Christians, an NGO based in Washington DC that advocates for Middle Eastern Christians, and is in close touch with Christian Churches in Syria, particularly the patriarchates of the Syriac Orthodox Church and the Greek Orthodox Church. He said the suicide bombing of the St. Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus on 22 June, which killed 30 and wounded another 60 has heightened the fears of the entire community.

“The amount of trust and credibility Al Sharaa’s government has gained in the Western world is amazing,” Ghazal continued. “They are viewing Al Sharaa and his government through rose-coloured glasses. But the reality on the ground is that their body of law is founded on Islamism. And while they call themselves a “transitional” government, they have already given themselves the authority to rule for four to five years, which is longer than the tenure of most elected governments.”

Nuri Kino, an award-winning Swedish journalist and humanitarian aid worker is the founder and leader of A Demand for Action, an NGO that is actively engaged with Syrian minorities. He concurs with Ghazal’s view. “We have been in contact with indigenous peoples and minorities in Syria ever since the new regime took over,” he said. “The pogroms against both Alawites and Druze, along with the more silent violence and persecution of Christians, and the 22 June bombing of St. Elias Greek Orthodox Church, have led none of these groups to believe in the possibility of a free election. The main power holders in northeastern Syria – Kurds, Arabs, and Christian Assyrians/Syriacs share the same view.”

Both Kino and Ghazal pointed out that the international conversation has shifted from a centralized state to a federal one in Syria, but that does not allay Christian fears. “While the Kurdish controlled Autonomous Administrative of North Eastern Syria is robust as an autonomous region, it wouldn’t work for Christians who live in isolated pockets in Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia and in the Hasaka governorate,” Ghazal said.

Alawites in the home country, as well as in Canada and the US, have expressed the view that the election does not bode well for Syria and has called on the international community to insist on a democratic process, rather than recognize an election for which Al Sharaa set the rules.

“As Alawite Syrians in the diaspora, we stand firmly with all (minority) Syrian communities – Alawite, Druze, Kurdish, Christian, Sunni, and others – who reject this charade and demand true accountability, inclusivity, and justice,” states a press release issued by the Alawite Association of the US. “We call on the international community, human rights organizations, and the Syrian diaspora to refuse recognition of these elections and to insist instead on a transparent and internationally supervised process that ensures direct participation of all Syrians and reflects the genuine will of the people.”

Their concerns are shared by thousands of ordinary Syrian Canadians who are watching the election with terror in their hearts at what they fear might end in a blood bath for their families and friends.

“When the HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-sham,) and a coalition of allied militias led by Abu Mohammed al Jolani (now re-named Ahmed al Sharaa) defeated Bashar al Assad in December 2024, we were delighted,” Sana Barouki, a member of the Druze Association of Vancouver BC, told Open Canada. “We thought it was the beginning of a new era for Syria, and that now we could build a country of peace, freedom and prosperity for all, for which so many Syrians gave their lives in the 14-year civil war against the Assad regime.”

She added that this dream has now turned into a nightmare, because of the protracted wave of massacres and atrocities committed against her people, the Druze.

Barouki, who immigrated to Canada in 2006 as a skilled worker before the vicious civil war broke out in her home country said she is grateful for the freedom that Canada gives her to speak out for her people.

“Between 15 and 17 July, I went through 48 hours of pure agony as my brother, who lives in Sweida, (a predominantly Druze area of Syria) was caught in the massacre of Druze that was going on in his home town,” she said.” I was on the phone with him constantly to make sure he and his wife and children were still alive and I panicked each time the phone went dead.”

She was referring to the days when dozens of Druze including women and children were extrajudicially killed by government forces in four days of clashes between government-backed Bedouin tribes and Druze, as documented by an Amnesty International report.

She said even during Assad’s time, the Druze were targeted by the government because theirs is a religion of peace, and Druze men refused to be conscripted into the army. But even after the fall of Assad, nothing has changed, and Sweida province is now under siege, with no water, food, medicines or electricity, she pointed out.

“I am pleading with the Canadian government to help set up a humanitarian corridor to get immediate relief to our people,” she said, adding that the Druze people have lost all hopes for a better future in Syria, and the massacres have strengthened a growing separatist movement.

Sarah, a Canadian Syrian Alawite activist based in Regina, Saskatchewan has a similar story to share. She requested that her last name be withheld from publication to protect her safety and security even in faraway Canada, where the hostilities in Syia between pro and anti-Al Sharaa elements can be played out on Canadian soil.

Born and raised in Tartous, a city in the predominantly Alawite area, she is a founding member of the Alawite Association of Canada and a passionate advocate for her people. A well established Canadian and an employee of the government of Saskatchewan, Sarah fills her spare time doing volunteer work, not only for the Alawite community but for all the people of her province, winning the Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Medal in 2022 for her efforts.

‘“Every day I get messages from family and friends in Syria, relaying horrific stories of eviction, imprisonment, torture, humiliation and massacre for no other reason that their religious denomination,” she said. She added that their desperate cries for help haunt her day and night, and she makes every effort to document their stories and help them as best as she can.

“The election will not change anything,” she warns. She said she is disappointed that letters to Canadian officials seeking support for her community in their hour of need have not met with any response.

Sarah has some recommendations for the Canadian government to help to protect survivors of post-civil war atrocities and bring some peace to the troubled land.

• Raise the issue in parliament by introducing a formal statement, or motion condemning the targeted violence against Syria’s minorities.
• Establish a special emergency pathway similar to the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Travel to offer temporary and permanent protection for Syria’s minorities under immediate threat. Collaborate with trusted humanitarian organizations to identify and support eligible applicants.
• Use the Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA) and the Magnitsky Act to sanction HTS and other affiliated jihadist networks and their leaders involved in crimes against humanity.
• Launch and support an internal investigation of the crimes against minorities by a team of experts accompanied by representatives of Syria’s minority organizations.
• Provide Canadian technical and legal expertise to support evidence-gathering, documentation and survivor protection.
• Establish family unification program for Canadian Syrian families with relatives trapped in life-threatening circumstances in Syria.

“As a Canadian taxpayer, I don’t want to see my tax money (given as aid to Syria) used to fund terrorism,” she said.