Prime Minister Carney Should Have Firm Guardrails When Resetting Canada–China Relations
As Canada strengthens trade ties with China, it must also maintain firm guardrails to defend Indo-Pacific security and peace in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing’s growing military pressure, economic coercion, and alignment with Russia threaten global supply chains and stability, making a balance between engagement and deterrence essential for Canada’s interests.
The Liberty Square in Taiwan
While it is important for Canada to reach a trade agreement with China on issues such as Canadian canola and to welcome Chinese investment that supports economic growth, it is equally important for Canada to maintain firm guardrails when defending Indo-Pacific security alongside its allies.
As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its influence in recent years across the Global South, the Arctic, the East and the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, defending Taiwan’s security has become not only a values-based commitment but a global security imperative. Despite its name, which suggests restraint, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “Justice Mission 2025” involved another round of military exercises, encircling Taiwan last year.
While these drills did not unfold with the immediate violence of conflict such as the Ukrainian War, international media often situate developments in the Taiwan Strait alongside other major global crises. This is because China’s growing military pressure around Taiwan reflects a broader pattern of assertive behavior that carries significant implications for regional stability and global peace.
Notably, China has allied with Russia on the frontline of Ukrainian war. China and Russia have grown more closely aligned through forums such as BRICS and expanded strategic cooperation, including China’s increased investment under its “Polar Silk Road” to support trade and access in the Arctic. They have also engaged in intensive grey-zone tactics toward Taiwan, including media infiltration, economic coercion, transnational repression, and the sabotage of undersea cables that are critical to communications across the Western Pacific Rim.
China is attempting to weaken Taiwan’s democracy and undermine the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. While over half of the global container traffic passes through this international waterway each year, the magnitude of any fallout should not be underestimated. Any conflict that arises from the Taiwan Strait will impact the world including Canada.
Taiwan welcomed the statement issued by Canada and G7 nations following the PRC’s escalating military activities. But it would be more effective if the free world including Canada stands firm to engage with Taiwan and continue to send warships to conduct routine patrols in the Taiwan Strait for deterrence purpose while it talks to China on trade, energy and agriculture.
The issue of Taiwan is not an isolated bilateral talking point, but an overwhelming concern on international security for stakeholders in the region. Besides, China has weaponized trade with Canada in the past, and may very well do so again. If Canada undertakes future actions to safeguard Canadian citizens’ human rights from China’s transnational repression, address overcapacity and non-market behaviours originating in China, or defend the rules-based international order in ways that do not align with the PRC’s purported “core interests,” it should expect political and diplomatic pushback.
Taiwan has experienced this firsthand. When our government stood firm in defending Taiwan’s national sovereignty, authorities in Beijing began issuing vexatious warrants against our politicians and temporarily prohibited Chinese companies from importing a wide range of Taiwanese agricultural products, including pineapples, sugar apples, and groupers. Much like how they targeted MP Michael Chong’s family, the Chinese Communists publicly doxed Taiwanese parliamentarian Puma Shen by publishing satellite photos of his home and workplace.
As geopolitics increasingly shape state relations and supply chains are tied more to national strategy than globalization, many transnational firms have reshored or friend-shored production to democratic countries with transparent and predictable regulations. However, Canada seems to seek a new economic equilibrium with China when free markets and multilateralism give way to new tariffs and protectionism.
As Prime Minister Carney has entered into a new partnership with his PRC counterpart on trade and re-engagement, Taiwan hopes he could also have firm guardrails and express Canada’s support for a peaceful status quo in the Taiwan Strait after he returns home. Taiwan, like so many other stakeholders in the region, is ready to deepen its partnership with Canada to establish reliable, resilient, and predictable supply chains defined by strong protections on intellectual property and rigorous protocols on fair trade. From critical minerals to liquefied natural gas and carbon capture to artificial intelligence, we can advance the frontiers of innovation and open new pathways to prosperity.
