Elections in Egypt: Another setback for democracy
It
looks likely that President Sisi will win a second term in March. Leading up to
the election, François LaRochelle looks at the domestic challenges currently
facing Egypt and the country’s changing role within the region.

Fellow, Institut d’études internationales de Montréal (UQÀM)
Next month, between March 26 and 28, Egyptians vote for a new president. The results, however, are already known.
The only real candidate, incumbent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will succeed himself. The head of a small party, Mousa Moustapha Mousa, is also on the ballot, though critics see him as a “dummy candidate, standing only to give the impression of a full democratic contest,” as Reuters and others have reported. His party has in fact endorsed Sisi.
All other potential adversaries have decided not to run. One, Sami Annan, a former chief of staff of the military, was arrested and charged with incitement against the armed forces. Another, former Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, disappeared on arrival at Cairo’s airport after being expelled from the UAE, where he lived, and then later announced he was withdrawing his candidacy.
The most recent withdrawal was that of Khaled Ali, a leftist lawyer who ran for president in 2012 and whose profile has risen since he led a protest movement against Sisi in 2016. Ali has said it is impossible for him to run a proper campaign this election due to the pressures exerted on him by the authorities, including the arrest of his supporters.
So, with all real opponents out of the
picture and Sisi likely to receive a second term, it’s important
to look at how he has fared as president until now. Sisi’s record so far is a
mixed one. When elected in 2014, he promised to bring back stability and
economic growth after the army overthrew President Mohamed Morsi and the
authorities violently repressed members of the Muslim Brotherhood and
imprisoned its leaders. He also pledged to protect the “gains” of the Arab
Spring.
His recipe for a stable Egypt has been to rely on the old dictatorial measures:
controlling the media, dividing the opposition, imprisoning opponents, and facilitating
their torture or disappearance, as well as putting pressure on or prohibiting
activities of Western and Egyptian NGOs. He has also prosecuted members of
the LGBT community. The record of human rights in Egypt is so bad that even the
Trump administration has criticized it, withholding American financial aid last
August.
But during recent visits to
Cairo by American Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,
the tone has changed, and those criticisms, at least publicly, have been
replaced by a focus on the shared fight against terrorism. A point of
contention between Washington and Cairo appears to be Egypt’s relations with
North Korea. The US would like the Egyptians to downgrade their ties with that
country, claiming the North Koreans are using their embassy in Cairo to
illegally sell arms and avoid international sanctions.
Canada has also expressed concerns over Egypt’s human rights situation. Last
November five Western ambassadors, from the UK, Canada, the Netherlands,
Germany and Italy, publicly expressed
criticism of Egypt over the detention of a human rights lawyer at
Cairo’s airport in September on his way to a United Nations meeting.
Trouble at home
Complicating Sisi’s leadership are repeated terrorist attacks by Islamist militants, the latest around Christmas against a Coptic church in Helwan (south of Cairo). A massacre last November, at the Bir al-Abed mosque in northern Sinai, killed or injured over 300 hundred worshippers, including children. Terrorists also target police forces, the army and civilians. In 2015, Islamic State militants fighting Egyptian security forces in Sinai took credit for a Russian airliner crash that killed 224 passengers and crew.
Egyptian authorities seem powerless in the face of this growing terrorist
threat spreading throughout the country, despite increased involvement of the
army and the police. Following the mosque attack, Sisi ordered the military to
eradicate terrorism in Sinai within three months and gave “carte blanche” to
his troops.
Such operations are likely to further alienate Egypt’s Sinai Bedouin tribes, who
have traditionally been neglected by the central authorities and feel they are considered
second-class citizens. Over decades, in order to survive, these nomadic tribes
have become experts in trafficking of all kinds, including that of goods
and humans, especially to the Gaza Strip and Israel. For a long time, the
Egyptian government has tried to settle the Bedouins to control their illegal
activities, under the pretext of improving living conditions. In the wake of
recent events in the Sinai, Sisi announced the construction of schools and the
provision of more social services there. He also called for a tribal union
to fight against terrorists.
It is likely that violent opposition to the regime by terrorists will continue
for the foreseeable future, though the overthrow of the government by the
jihadists is virtually unthinkable — the army has essentially controlled the
country since the reign of President Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s.
Economic opportunities
On the economic front, however, the view is more positive. At least, that is the outlook of the IMF, which put stringent conditions on the Egyptian government in return for a US$12 billion loan in November 2016.
A first wave of reforms, including the implementation of a value-added tax, the
reduction of energy subsidies and the liberation of the Egyptian pound, was carried
out, followed by a second wave targeted at removing investment barriers
and attracting local and foreign investments. The government’s reform program has
been widely endorsed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank.
Following Sisi’s election
in 2014, the economy has gradually been improving, with annual rates of GDP
growth reaching 4.3 percent in 2015/2016, up from an average of only two
percent during the period from 2010/11 to 2013/14. The overall budget
deficit declined in the first half of 2017 to 5.4 percent of GDP, down
from 6.4 percent for the same period the previous year. Following the
floatation of the local currency, the exchange rate initially displayed some
volatility, but subsequently started to strengthen.
To alleviate the adverse effects of the economic reforms on the poor and
vulnerable, the government adopted a package of social protection programs. Despite
the efforts, however, inflation (presently around 25 percent) caused by the
currency floatation, energy subsidy reform and food price increases has significantly
affected Egyptian households, especially the poor and the vulnerable segments
of the population, as well as the middle class. Unemployment continues to
be high, at 12.4 percent in the final quarter of 2016, with rates higher among
youth and women. In different circumstances voters could express their
discontent at these reforms by voting against the incumbent, but with only one
candidate, the only way they could do so next month will be by not casting a
ballot.
The economic situation has also had an impact on Egypt’s foreign policy. The
country has attempted to diminish its political and financial dependency on the
United States and is seeking alternatives. Qatar was a supporter of the Muslim
Brotherhood’s Morsi, Sisi’s predecessor, so Sisi has now turned to Saudi Arabia
for closer relations. As a result, Egypt has had to surrender sovereignty
of two islands in the Red Sea, is participating in the “coalition” fighting the
Houthis in Yemen, and joined the Saudi-led campaign against Iran and Qatar.
Evolving allies
There are also now reports
of a rapprochement between Egypt and Russia. An agreement has reportedly
been reached allowing Russian military aviation to benefit from bases in Egypt,
a first in more than 40 years. During his visit to Egypt in December, Russian
President Vladimir Putin announced
that a nuclear plant financed by Russia would be built and that the Russian
authorities were reviewing the travel restrictions put on tourism from Russia
to Egypt following the 2015 attack on the Russian passenger plane.
Egypt saw a decline in tourism, a major source of revenue, following the 2011
revolution, a drop exacerbated by security concerns, particularly following
Russia’s decision to halt flights.
In addition to a hoped-for increase in tourism, the energy sector will potentially
drive economic growth in 2018. A major development last year was production
from Egypt’s largest Mediterranean natural gas field, Zohr, coming
online. While this project provides only a fraction of Egypt’s daily
consumption, the gas produced is an important addition to the country’s total
daily production. Egypt expects to achieve self-sufficiency in 2019, when
the second phase of development of the field is to be completed. That
could allow Cairo to start exporting natural gas and secure a new and
important income stream.
It remains to be seen if these economic prospects will be enough to ensure that
the country can cope with its inherent challenges. With a population of over
100 million (and growing), and a restless youth seeking work but also social
changes, Sisi’s second mandate will not be easy on the domestic front. If
re-elected, he will have to pay attention to the recent events in Iran and
Tunisia, where populations expressed their discontent at their governments due
to their economic situation. The Egyptian regime will also continue to be
under pressure for its human rights record. Terrorism, while
controllable, will no doubt be a threat.
On the international stage, the Middle East is a cauldron of tensions, and no
one knows at this stage where the hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran will
lead. Since the 1980s, Egypt has gradually lost its leadership role within the
Middle East, and its ties with Saudi Arabia are limiting its role further,
but it is nevertheless a pivotal player that should not be ignored. Its
stability is vital for the future of the region. That said, a desire for
stability should not result in other countries, including Canada, blindly supporting
an autocratic regime there. The international community should remain vigilant
and not be shy to criticize the human rights record of the present (and future)
Egyptian president.