Listen Now

Curtis: Is the world closer to the edge of the ‘fiscal cliff’ today than it was in 2008?

By: /
29 October, 2012
By: John Curtis
Adjunct Professor at Queen's University and Chair of Statistics Canada's Advisory Committee on International Trade Statistics

No, the world is nowhere near a “fiscal cliff.” While the U.S. fiscal/debt situation as of January 1, 2013 has been described by some in the media as a potential “fiscal cliff,” a newly-elected president and a slightly more reasonable House of Representatives will quickly come to some accommodation – likely a version of the Simpson-Bowles recommendation of two years ago – and the U.S. will resume its slow economic recovery. The deleveraging in that country is about over after six or seven years. U.S. economic growth will be strong by mid-decade, led by exports and resumed consumer spending. China and other BRICs will outpace western growth, including that of the U.S., but not by the sharp differential that has characterized the past half-decade. The so-called fiscal cliff will be forgotten in months.

Before you click away, we’d like to ask you for a favour … 


Open Canada is published by the Canadian International Council, but that’s only the beginning of what the CIC does. Through its research and live events hosted by its 18 branches across the country, the CIC is dedicated to engaging Canadians from all walks of life in an ongoing conversation about Canada’s place in the world.

By becoming a member, you’ll be joining a community of Canadians who seek to shape Canada’s role in the world, and you’ll help Open Canada continue to publish thoughtful and provocative reporting and analysis.

Join us