Carney, Trump, and Canada’s coming federal election 

Canadian politics has often been characterized as boring. And while a bland and understated approach has worked out favourably for us in the past, the last two months have been anything but dull.

It started with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally calling it a day on 6 January. As recounted in an earlier piece I wrote for Open Canada, a deep malaise and fatigue had set in. Plus, any government approaching 10 years in office is usually skating on thin ice, as the public becomes itchy for change. But he waited much too long and should have had his walk in the snow over a year ago. As a result, he and his party had consistently fallen 20 points behind the leader of the opposition, Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau had also lost the confidence of his caucus. At the end, he was isolated and alone.

Moreover, he left his successor, Mark Carney, extremely little runway to prepare for a new government, develop new policies, and get better known by the Canadian public. This was a grave disservice, and a critical failure on Trudeau’s part. All leaders have an obligation to leave their successors with a strong party, and ample room to govern.

Notwithstanding, Carney has done remarkably well with the cards he has been dealt. I have never met the man, but to date, I have been impressed. He won the Liberal Party leadership race with 86% of the vote, which is an overwhelming victory, and a huge benefit for him going into an election that will be called in a matter of days. He has a united, reinvigorated, and motivated party behind him.

He also has been sure-footed and confident in his public appearances since being sworn in as Prime Minister, which is quite notable since politics is a new vocation for him. For starters, Carney chose a much smaller and focused Cabinet, which has met with public favour. He also has shown a strategic bent, in pursuing key meetings in quick order – including with his cabinet and caucus; our Canadian Ambassador to the US; Premiers Ford and Legault; Nunavut Premier Akeeagok, with whom he made an important announcement regarding the protection of our sovereignty in the Arctic; with steel workers in Hamilton, as a backdrop to US tariffs on steel and aluminum; Canadian security and defence officials; and travelled to Europe to meet French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer, and King Charles, which served to strengthen old friendships. Not bad for his first five days in office! And he is planning to meet with all the Premiers on 21 March, the first day of spring, interestingly enough.

With Trudeau gone and Carney successfully establishing himself, public opinion polls have narrowed substantially. The Liberals and Conservatives are virtually tied, with some studies suggesting that the former are beginning to pull in front of their rivals. The Liberals have created new momentum, while many Conservative Members of Parliament and insiders are in panic mode.

Often, whom we select as our leaders is influenced by the times we live in. When it came to the Liberal Party leadership campaign, Carney’s economic credentials loomed large during this moment of economic turmoil and uncertainty. And today, most Canadians are showing confidence in his economic experience and leadership.

But politics can change on a dime. After being favoured for such a long time, the Conservatives can bounce back during the election writ. Plus, Poilievre has been in politics all his life, is an effective communicator and very quick on his feet. Liberals would be foolish to underestimate him.

The new PM is expected to call an election before the House resumes on 24 March, when the Opposition parties have vowed to bring down the Liberal minority government. And that would be astute on his part. It would be far better that he initiates the call and offers Canadians an immediate opportunity to have their say, while avoiding a defeat in Parliament.

Whenever that election comes it will largely be about one issue: Donald Trump. That’s the other reason why the two political parties are deadlocked. For Liberals, he has been the “political miracle” they prayed for. The bad news is that he has been terrorizing Canada for two months.

In just 60 days, thanks to Trump’s misguided adventures, the world order has been turned upside down. He has gone after friends with a vengeance, especially Canada; has undermined alliances and institutions; upended long-held values and traditions; and launched a trade war on multiple fronts. No one had predicted that Trump 2.0 would be this unhinged.

Canadians, as a result, are most anxious about the impact of US tariffs, and the President’s constant musings of Canada becoming the 51^st state. Our economy and way of life are under threat. Nothing has come close to this moment in Canada’s history, not since World War II.

Therefore, the 2025 election here in Canada will be dominated by how leaders propose to deal with the White House, how they promise to protect our independence, and how they plan to grow Canadian prosperity. These three issues will be bundled into one overarching challenge that will dominate the election discourse.

As such, it will be like the 1988 election, when the proposed Free Trade Agreement with the US overshadowed all other issues. I remember it well as a candidate in that race. It was essentially a referendum on whether to sign a trade accord with America. It was unfair to so many other important domestic matters that deserved some airtime. But that’s what happens when the public mind is rattled by a single public policy.

Matters concerning foreign affairs normally go missing in action during federal elections. In the next one, such concerns will be center stage. International politics, with Trump as the leading man, will become very local. It will effectively be a plebiscite on who can best deal with him, and lead Canada through these precarious days. That means the campaign will even be more focused on the party leaders, and the televised debates becoming high wire acts that will likely have a crucial impact on the final outcome. Unfortunately, individual candidates will be an afterthought.

On the upside, is it overly naïve to expect that the political partisanship will be less nasty, given the dire consequences facing Canada? That leaders, on some issues and proposals, will actually agree with each other? That the television debates will be more than 30 second muck-racking exercises? That Canada will emerge stronger and more united? Here’s hoping.

I also hope that voter turnout will be at a record high, that Canadians truly make their voices heard, loud and clear, on the future of Canada.

Yes, we are now living in politically interesting times. For many, too interesting.