Azerbaijan: Middle Power, Multilateral Diplomacy

A middle power is a nation that exerts notable regional influence and plays a role in shaping international affairs through diplomacy, economic might and strategic partnerships, yet which falls short of superpower status. Canada established itself as a middle power in the late 1950s, through its emphasis on international trade cooperation and UN–based activities such as peacekeeping. These were mainly multilateral initiatives and were implemented at a time when the number of independent states in the world (judged by UN membership) was roughly half of what it is today.

Such countries tend to have stable political systems, expanding economies and active foreign policies. Such attributes position them as mediators and bridge-builders in global disputes. Simultaneously, they adeptly pursue their own interests by leveraging soft power and multilateralism to maintain an equilibrium in their relationships with larger powers. To qualify as a middle power, a nation must also exhibit resilience and adaptability. 

As middle powers, Azerbaijan and Canada – although they differ geographically and culturally – share many commonalities that could provide a strong foundation for increased cooperation. Like Canada, Azerbaijan has a culture deeply marked by religious tolerance and multiculturalism. Azerbaijan is the only country in the world where Sunni and Shi’a Muslims worship together. It is home to the last extant Jewish shtetl, the now-famous mountain city of Quba, where Jews have been resident for at least 1500 years, and possibly since the Babylonian exile. The most obvious objective commonality between Azerbaijan and Canada is that both are rich in oil, natural gas and other natural resources, and are major producers of them.

The result is that both are critical energy suppliers, Azerbaijan to Europe and Canada to the United States and potentially the Pacific Rim in the near future. In Azerbaijan, the revenue generated from energy exports has allowed Baku to build a robust economy, invest in infrastructure, and enhance its regional influence. In both countries, energy resources are central to the economy and important drivers of their influence in regional and global energy markets. 

Both countries are also key players in regions with significant maritime and geopolitical interests and there is opportunity here for cooperation focused on environmental protection, sustainable development and the sharing of experiences and best practices.

Canada – a founding member of the UN, NATO, and the Commonwealth of Nations – has a long tradition of multilateral engagement, and Azerbaijan also has demonstrated its commitment to multilateral diplomacy.  In today’s world, middle powers like Azerbaijan often operate through “plurilateralism” in addition to multilateralism. Plurilateralism refers to cooperation amongst  limited number of states – more than two but not a large number – about particular topics in which they have a special interest.

Azerbaijan has exemplified this sort of diplomacy through its recent leadership of the Organization of Turkic States and Non-Aligned Movement, to name but two organizations. In the recent past, Baku has also hosted the Eurovision song contest in 2012, the first European Olympic Games in 2015 and the first Formula One Azerbaijan Grand Prix in 2017 and the latest Grand Prix is set for this month. Such activity allows today’s new middle powers to increase their influence by focusing jointly on serious global issues while also enhancing their connectedness through cultural and sporting activities.

By deepening their cooperation, Azerbaijan and Canada are in a position to enhance their roles on the global stage, contribute to regional stability, and foster sustainable development. Collaborative efforts in energy, security, multilateral diplomacy and economic diversification would also be mutually beneficial.

Canada has made a first step toward improving relations with Azerbaijan by providing assistance, earlier in the 2020s, to its National Agency for Mine Action, for de-mining the formerly occupied regions of the country. This is an excellent basis for deepening cooperation in other areas. In particular, Canada has strength in natural resources but also a diverse economy. Azerbaijan is heavily reliant on its energy sector but has been actively pursuing economic diversification in its agricultural, humanitarian and technical sectors to reduce dependency on oil and gas.

Canada’s experience in developing a knowledge-based economy could be particularly valuable for Azerbaijan’s diversification efforts. Furthermore, Canada’s expertise in energy technology and Azerbaijan’s strategic position as a supplier to Europe could easily lead to mutually beneficial partnerships in energy infrastructure development and market access.

Likewise, collaborative efforts in renewable energy, sustainable development and climate resilience would benefit both nations as well as the international community. Azerbaijan’s hosting of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in November 2024, represents just another example of the country’s status as middle power, and provides the perfect occasion to start these discussions.

In geopolitical terms, Azerbaijan, because of its Caspian Sea connection and participation in the trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor”, is objectively the most significant country in the South Caucasus, indeed a key to Central Asia. Unfortunately, the Government of Canada has no resident office in Azerbaijan – not even an honourary consul – and Canadian citizens must refer to the Embassy of Canada in Ankara, 1500 kilometres from Baku, for any assistance or information. By contrast, the powerful Armenian diaspora and its lobby in Ottawa claim credit for Canada’s recent opening of a full embassy in Yerevan. 

Moving forward, Canada might wish to consider a more balanced approach, opening an embassy in Baku, if it wants to make a real contribution to peace and development in the region. A likely roadblock is that no one in the Canadian government is apparently ready to champion closer relations. Indeed, the Canada-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Friendship Group has been without a Chair since Member of Parliament Philip Lawrence resigned in October 2023.

Furthermore, the Canadian Embassy web page for Azerbaijan lists trade data from 2018 but nothing after that. Likewise, the web page belonging to the Azerbaijan Embassy to Canada is significantly outdated with trade data and a list of bilateral visits going no further than 2013. At least the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has some bilateral trade figures from 2020.

Even if Ottawa disapproves of what many see as Baku’s domestic authoritarianism, having an embassy there will better allow the Canadian voice to be heard. Azerbaijan, for its part, would likely respond to Canadian initiatives but is unlikely to take the first step. Certainly, the shared lack of interest in improving bilateral relations does not seem likely to benefit either country in the longer term. Thus, the overall situation is unfortunate, given the many areas for potential cooperation that would result in mutual benefit.