It Can’t Be Happening!
In America the anticipated Trump-Biden rematch remains too close to call
Jeremy Kinsman
CIC Distinguished Fellow
Jeremy Kinsman, a Distinguished Fellow of the CIC, has been a long-time addict of US politics, professionally as Minister for Political Affairs at our Embassy in Washington in the 1980s, and more recently as Regent's Lecturer and International Scholar at Berkeley, after serving as Canadian Ambassador in Moscow, Rome, London, and Brussels.
Most Recent Posts
When Will Putin Finally Grasp That Russia Has Lost?
That the war is going badly for Russia is seemingly something everyone knows but him
Another Russian Revolution?
Canada’s former ambassador to Russia on why Alexei Navalny is an existential threat to Vladimir Putin.
Book Review: The Good Country Equation
Simon Anholt, The Good Country Equation: How We Can Repair the World in One Generation. Berrett-Koehler, 2020.
The end of Britain as we know it?
Internal divisions are tearing both the US and the UK apart. But while the US will likely swing back to its moderate ways once Trump is gone, the UK will be forever changed post-Brexit, writes Jeremy Kinsman.
Russian expulsions: ‘If there was ever a time for diplomacy, this is it’
Former Canadian ambassador to Russia Jeremy Kinsman calls for a new, robust roadmap for dealing with Putin and asks: which global leader is prepared
to stick to it?
NAFTA Talks: End of round four, end of high hopes for Canada-US relations
The expectation that Justin
Trudeau would re-establish a positive relationship with the White House officially
fizzled this week. Jeremy Kinsman asks if Canada has been playing its cards right and how it might proceed.
NAFTA lessons: What I’ve learned negotiating with the US
As a Canadian ambassador once said, negotiating with the US means coping with ‘a country of a thousand
players who can deliver a thousand wounds.’ As NAFTA talks continue, veteran diplomat Jeremy Kinsman
reflects on his own experience and cautions against appearing too eager for an
accord.
Gambled and lost: Hope wins over fear in UK election
Canada’s former High Commissioner to the UK, Jeremy Kinsman, on the many lessons that should be taken from Thursday’s
results: ‘Division of societies
won’t work any more.’
What’s behind Theresa May’s election gamble in the UK?
With
a general election called for June 8, is May a shoo-in? Jeremy Kinsman, former Canadian high commissioner to the UK, on why now and what could throw the narrative.
Meet Alexei Navalny, Russia’s political underdog with bite
Navalny may not be able to beat Putin in next year’s presidential election, but he is
inspiring a new kind of thinking in Russia.
As Trump enters the Oval Office, the world enters uncharted territory
With Donald Trump’s inauguration around the corner,
let’s take stock of his election — remembering not to normalize his behaviour —
and then get on with it, writes Jeremy Kinsman.
Fidel’s death a reminder of the special Canada-Cuba bond
Trudeau’s unabashed praise of the late Cuban leader reflects a special relationship between the two countries — one that needs reinforcing as Cuba faces a period of great change.
Is the EU project on the brink of irrelevance?
For seven years, Canada has been trying to find the EU’s evasive sweet spot of consensus on a bilateral trade deal. If CETA is rejected this week, is the EU good for anything anymore?
From Europe to Canada, how to promote a truly welcoming culture for migrants
Aspects of Canada’s pluralism model may serve Europe well, but is it a fair comparison? In advance of 6 Degrees, the upcoming three-day event on inclusion, diplomat Jeremy Kinsman looks at the challenge of identity and integration in both regions.
Life After Brexit: Is anything now possible?
UK
Prime Minister Theresa May has asserted that “there will be no second
referendum” following Britain’s vote to leave the EU on June 23. But what if
the European model changes in the meantime? As veteran diplomat Jeremy Kinsman
writes, in a follow up to his open letter to David Cameron, when nothing is
clear, anything may be possible.
A Brexit post-mortem: 17 takeaways for a fallen David Cameron
In this open memo to the outgoing British Prime Minister, […]
A European unravelling
On the eve of the UK’s referendum
over EU membership, Canada’s former High Commissioner to the United Kingdom,
Jeremy Kinsman, looks at how the debate got this far and what to expect next
week, and beyond.
Why Europe will survive this mega storm
The European Project was meant to ward against the 20th
century nationalistic passions that led to two world wars. But a financial
meltdown, refugee crisis and now unnecessary referendum have blown a perfect
storm into a hurricane. Is the EU just too big to fail?
Understanding the recent road to crisis in the Middle East
Why have Arab states failed? Within borders drawn by outsiders, most
are institutionally weak, archaic, corrupt and inert, riven by sectarian
hostilities. The epicentre of failure is Syria. Jeremy Kinsman on how the
region fell into chaos, and how it will get itself out.
Why the Brussels attacks run deeper than the war with ISIS
With more than 30 killed on Tuesday, former EU-based diplomat Jeremy Kinsman reflects
on the complex make-up of communities now in the spotlight and the
difficult task of preventing this kind of violence.
Justin Trudeau ends 2015 on a high note
In the two months since taking office,
the Liberal prime minister has hit the global stage running, embodying the Canadian spirit
of multilateralism and inclusivity.
With Paris attacks, Europe’s identity crisis deepens
World media attempted to put a human face on refugees, but now, with
recent terror attacks, ISIL is pitting ‘foreigners’ against Europeans. Can the
EU emerge from this united?
Greece and Europe: crisis by crisis, can the EU be saved?
When it comes to Greece and Europe, EU leadership must think in terms of decades & centuries, not weeks & months.
Russia, corruption and the dark side of the Beautiful Game
Jeremy Kinsman reflects on politics, money, and lies. And where sport sits in the middle of it all.
Canada’s top foreign policy is one closest to home
This year’s election campaign needs to address strengthening U.S. and North American relations.
U.S. and Iran: A diplomatic lesson for Canada
Few relationships are as adversarial as that of the US and Iran. But negotiating with one’s enemy is the most important kind of diplomacy — Canada should take note.
Tennis And Diplomacy: Do Winners Need to Take All?
Eugenie Bouchard’s recent behaviour mirrors Canada’s on the international stage. By Jeremy Kinsman.
The scorched earth of the Arab Spring
For the millions who felt empowered by events in Tahrir Square, a democratic awakening has been postponed but not smothered, argues Jeremy Kinsman.
Ukraine: on the edge of peace or catastrophe?
How did we get to this point in eastern Ukraine? And how can we prevent it from escalating further?
A good man goes down: Remembering Boris Nemtsov
As Russians mourn the murdered opposition leader, Jeremy Kinsman reflects on what his death symbolizes in the country’s battle for democracy.
A ceasefire in Ukraine: complex, but absolutely vital
There is no military solution to the conflict, argues Jeremy Kinsman.
Harper’s foreign policy: hard realism or empty posturing?
Jeremy Kinsman on how the prime minister has projected himself and Canada in the world.
Berlin’s joy: unprecedented, a bit naive and yes, justified
Russia may still be an antagonist for Western governments, but the end of the Cold War was the start of something much bigger.
Building a better North America
The continental bonds of North America’s Three Amigos feel frayed. We can do better, says Jeremy Kinsman.
Responding to Tragedy: Malaysia Airlines MH17
Jeremy Kinsman on what the Flight MH17 crash means for the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Arctic Sovereignty: Fear and Loathing Over Santa’s Workshop
Jeremy Kinsman on Canada’s strained relationship with Russia in the Arctic.
Kinsman: Should a state ever consider negotiating with terrorist organizations? And if so, under what circumstances?
“We don’t negotiate with terrorists” is a slogan without substance. […]
Kinsman: Will the current Israeli-Palestinian negotiations progress in the coming months?
Nothing positive has happened during the current round of negotiations […]
Kinsman: What role will sanctions by Canada, the United States, and the European Union play in the development of the political crisis in Ukraine?
The Ukraine protests were not primarily about geopolitics, the EU […]
Kinsman: What regional and/or international challenges are most pressing for the governments of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, respectively?
It’s becoming a sort of dysfunctional Canadian story. 1) The […]
Kinsman: Are the Liberal party’s calls for parliamentary oversight of Canada’s intelligence services warranted?
Parliamentary oversight of these controversial powers is essential but the […]
Kinsman: What was the most significant development in international affairs this year?
Rouhani’s election in Iran and then the tentative and preliminary […]
Kinsman: What impact has Nelson Mandela had on your life?
I offer a memory that serves as a constant reminder […]
Kinsman: Are criticisms of the preliminary nuclear accord with Iran prescient or paranoid?
It depends who the critic is. Netanyahu’s entitled to express […]
Kinsman: Are global talks on climate change useful?
Alan B. Sielen writes in the current issue of Foreign […]
Kinsman: Should the Canadian government spy on economic targets abroad and share that intelligence with Canadian corporations?
No. There is no legal mandate for electronic interception of […]
Democracy Rising?
Jeremy Kinsman on why successfully building and renewing democracy depends on civil society.
Kinsman: What can the West hope to achieve with a military strike on Syria?
The “West” – that is the U.S., France, and the […]
Kinsman: Should Western governments cut off aid to Egypt?
Democracies should be giving more aid to Egypt, not less. […]
Kinsman: Should Canada boycott the 2014 Sochi Olympics?
We’re not there yet. Anti-gay laws were one of the […]
Kinsman: Is Bradley Manning a whistle-blower or a traitor?
The U.S. actually comes across in the Wiki-leaked documents mostly […]
Kinsman: Should President Morsi Resign?
No. Sure, it’s a real mess and one of Morsi’s […]
Kinsman: With revelation of widespread surveillance of Canadian communications, both by the NSA and the Communications Security Establishment Canada, has privacy lost out to security concerns?
No question it has. Civil liberties give way whenever there’s […]
Kinsman: Should Canada be calling for the overthrow of the Iranian regime?
“Charity begins at home.”
Kinsman: Who needs Keystone XL more, Canada or the United States?
Obviously, Canada. That it is so obvious Canada needs it […]
Kinsman: Would establishing that Syria has used chemical weapons be enough trigger international intervention?
The reasons international intervention has so far been limited to […]
Kinsman: Who had the right response to the Boston Marathon attack, Justin Trudeau or Stephen Harper?
You’re playing into the “gotcha” game. Leave that to the […]
Kinsman: Is the folding of CIDA into DFAIT the end or a fresh start for Canadian international development?
It will depend on whether the Harper Government sees development […]
Kinsman: Should building ties in Latin America be a policy priority for Canada?
Of course. Trudeau (PET) believed deeply that Canada has a […]
Kinsman: Does the pope still matter in international relations?
It’s remotely possible that if the conclave chose a Pope […]
Kinsman: Which state nuclear program poses the greatest threat to global security today?
The one that scares me the most is Pakistan’s. Anything […]
Kinsman: Is American energy independence a threat to the Canadian economy?
A “threat”? That’s not the right word. Canadians these days […]
Kinsman: Is Islamist extremism a bigger problem now than it was before 9/11?
In fact, Islamic terrorist attacks in 2012 world-wide were down […]
Kinsman: Should Canada’s military support the intervention in Mali?
Yes. The UN Security Council urged members to do so. […]
Kinsman: What should Canada’s top foreign policy priority be in 2013?
Fast-breaking trivial info item: Canada’s Foreign Service Officers are to […]
Kinsman:Should U.S. diplomats meet with Hamas leaders when conducting ‘shuttle diplomacy’ in the Middle East?
Of course. Purposeful diplomacy means talking with everybody, above or […]
Kinsman: Who faces greater challenges to reform, the Xi-Li or the Obama administration?
Vastly different challenges. China’s political oligarchy has to cede its […]
Kinsman: Should the Canadian government put a price on carbon?
As public policy, carbon pricing is desirable. Out here in […]
Kinsman: Is there any consequence to Harper’s decision not to address the UN General Assembly?
Not outside of Canada. It’s hard to imagine there is […]
Kinsman: Is there any consequence to Harper’s decision not to address the UN General Assembly?
Not outside of Canada. It’s hard to imagine there is […]
Kinsman: Do Morsi’s recent moves suggest his agenda is to take Egypt toward a democratic future, or back to an authoritarian past?
If Morsi weren’t from the Muslim Brotherhood, would the question […]
Kinsman: Do Morsi’s recent moves suggest his agenda is to take Egypt toward a democratic future, or back to an authoritarian past?
If Morsi weren’t from the Muslim Brotherhood, would the question […]
Kinsman: Last week, OpenCanada posted its summer reading list. What’s on yours?
OK, I’ll bite, if only possibly to help others make […]
Kinsman: Last week, OpenCanada posted its summer reading list. What’s on yours?
OK, I’ll bite, if only possibly to help others make […]
Kinsman: Should Canada cut ties with the monarchy and become a republic?
No and yes. Canada will not “cut ties” with the […]
Kinsman: Are the Quebec riots a manifestation of the global Occupy movement?
The Quebec riots might be more meaningful if they were […]
Kinsman: Should Canada view cyberspace as a threat or opportunity?
It’s a reality that has transformed human affairs. Global inter-connectedness […]
Kinsman: Which current or former international leader should be prosecuted by the ICC and why?
If only it were that simple. His desperate and brutal […]
Kinsman: What is the biggest lesson Canada can take from its experience in Afghanistan?
Being advocates immediately after 9/11 for NATO to go to […]
Kinsman: Was the first decade of the ICC a more just one?
Selectively, and gradually, yes, for citizens from defeated states. But […]
Kinsman: Does Canada need an independent organization to promote rights and democracy abroad?
We do. We have managed democratic pluralism reasonably successfully and […]
Kinsman: What adjective would you use to describe Canada’s international brand in 2012?
Self-involved? Thrilled with itself? But also enviably sound.
Kinsman: What adjective would you use to describe Canada’s international brand in 2012?
Self-involved? Thrilled with itself? But also enviably sound.
Kinsman: Should the World Bank consider non-Americans for its next president?
Of course. They should have done so for at least […]
Kinsman: Should Canadian corporations be permitted to do business with corrupt and repressive regimes?
“Permission” by the Government only clicks in when there are […]
Kinsman: Will Obama be successful in convincing Netanyahu not to strike Iran?
For now – that is before the November US elections […]
Kinsman: How should Canada respond to the rising violence in Syria?
Canada can’t in practical terms do anything of consequence by […]
Kinsman: Is North America dead?
The need for neighbourhood has never been greater. The three […]
Kinsman: What is Canada’s biggest international opportunity in 2012?
Most opportunities flow from events and as 2011 showed, “experts” […]
Kinsman: What was Canada’s best international moment of 2011?
The “Own the Podium” Vancouver Winter Olympics didn’t make much […]
Kinsman: With the delay in Keystone XL, will attention now shift to the Northern Gateway?
I doubt, speaking from British Columbia, that Northern Gateway has […]
Kinsman: Can the Egyptian revolution be counted a success while the Armed Forces remain in power?
No way. Military subordination to civilian authority is a sine […]
Kinsman: How can the G20 help save the euro zone?
The notion the G20 might extend national credits to help […]
Kinsman: Could the spread of information via digital media reduce mass atrocities?
Of course. Democracy and human rights activists are accused of being […]
Kinsman: Are diplomats needed in the digital age?
Of course – as are butchers, priests, surgeons, and artists. […]
Kinsman: Is Jean Monnet’s dream for Europe ending in nightmare?
Monnet dreamed of ending Europe’s murderous wars and it came true. […]
Kinsman: Is the Ethical Oil campaign helping or hurting Canada’s international reputation?
Hurting, for sure. The campaign is offensive. And it’s stupid. […]
Kinsman: Is a UN resolution on Palestinian statehood a step forward or backward for the Israel-Palestine conflict?
Philip Stephens writes in the Financial Times that Palestinian statehood […]
Kinsman: If 9/11 defined the last decade, will the Arab Spring define the next?
As a democracy activist, I hope so. But defence of […]
Kinsman: Is Conservative foreign policy different from Liberal foreign policy?”
Conservative minority governments entered with sparse world experience or interest […]
Kinsman: Is Conservative foreign policy different from Liberal foreign policy?”
Conservative minority governments entered with sparse world experience or interest […]
Kinsman: What would be the regional fallout from the end of Assad’s regime?
The regime will inevitably fall to the democratic forces sweeping […]
Kinsman: What would be the regional fallout from the end of Assad’s regime?
The regime will inevitably fall to the democratic forces sweeping […]
Kinsman: Does the ‘royal’ rebranding of the Canadian Forces have a wider meaning?
The “royal” retrofit to the Navy and Air Force titles […]
Kinsman: Does the ‘royal’ rebranding of the Canadian Forces have a wider meaning?
The “royal” retrofit to the Navy and Air Force titles […]
Kinsman: What societal problems have the London riots exposed?
Theories and agendas abound. A crisis over values is exposed […]
Kinsman: Should we view the Oslo attack as an arbitrary act or as a reflection of wider political and religious extremism?
He wrote he would “kill to avoid the islamicization of […]
Kinsman: What’s the ultimate objective of Harper’s softer stance on China?
It’s not about “softer” but about being rational. John Baird […]
Kinsman: Does last week’s creation of a Southern Sudanese state point to succession as the solution to other African conflicts?
Africans agreed not to unravel arbitrary colonial borders which ignored […]
Kinsman: Should Canada strengthen its military presence in the Arctic?
Presence, yes, but why “military?” Where’s the threat? Fantasies like […]
Kinsman: Can Lagarde and the IMF save the Euro?
Though the IMF also provides short term financing to Greece, […]
Kinsman: How has Canada’s experience in Afghanistan changed Canadian foreign policy?
Upside in capacity but downside in international behaviour. Our Afghan […]
Kinsman: What issue should John Baird prioritize?
Support the “Arab awakening.” The Globe and Mail describes Stephen […]