Bruce Jones

Much has been made of a unified BRICs challenge to the West. Not so fast, says Bruce Jones. The West is an enduring power bloc.

Today’s sanctions by the West are likely not aimed, as much of the media commentary suggests, at reversing Russian actions in Crimea; that’s unlikely to succeed short of a devastating blow to the Russian economy, and even then such a blow would just as likely encourage nationalism and spartanism rather than restraint. Rather, this is […]

The interim deal in Iran: if it’s finally inked, and if it holds, and if it leads to a more final deal on Iran’s nuclear program. These are big ifs – already new names being added to the American sanctions regime caused the Iranian negotiators to walk out of the latest round of talks, and […]

It might well. The U.S. Administration – and more importantly, President Obama personally – has set chemical weapons use as a red line. There’s some wiggle room in his position, in that there’s never been any specification of how much, or in what fashion, chemical weapons use would trigger U.S. action. But pressure will now […]

It could be either. There’s also a very strong case for tying aid more closely to foreign policy objectives – that is, if our foreign policy objectives recognize that it is a good thing for our businesses and a good thing in values terms if poverty is declining and stability is rising. Tools and techniques […]

No.

Yes. What’s happening in Mali affects Canada in two main ways. First, territorial gains by Al Qaeda affiliated groups pose a direct security threat to a key European ally, France, and to western interests more generally. (Ask Robert Fowler if there’s any doubt on that score.) Second, the combination of direct support to the state, […]

The question is slightly miscast, because in 2008 it wasn’t a fiscal cliff but a financial one – and we fell off, when the U.S. Treasury allowed Lehman to fail. The combination of quantitative easing, TARP, and coordinated expansionist policy by the key G20 members pulled us back onto the ledge. Now, we face three […]

Let’s hope so. Some months ago I argued (here) that the least bad option available for Syria was the deployment of an internationally mandated stabilization force – a force mandated not to overthrow Assad, but to freeze hostilities. That’s neither easy nor risk free; but nor is it impossible. The essential condition, though, is a […]

Many world leaders chose not to do this. Merkel is not here, for example; she sent her foreign minister. That’s a perfectly rational decision for any head of state with major domestic business to focus on. In the case of Harper, one could make the following case: that the decision not to come will reinforce […]

Many world leaders chose not to do this. Merkel is not here, for example; she sent her foreign minister. That’s a perfectly rational decision for any head of state with major domestic business to focus on. In the case of Harper, one could make the following case: that the decision not to come will reinforce […]

Calmly.

Drones are proving a useful (if legally somewhat problematic) tool in counter-terrorism. F-35s and similar air assets have been a useful tool in defeating organized government forces (to wit, Qaddafi’s army.) These are not the same problem. Drones can substitute for some portion of what F-35s do, and the other way around is not true; […]

The past decade was one of the least violent in modern history. The number and level of civil wars in the world has continued it’s steady decline, while interstate war has remained at its steady, low levels. That that is true despite the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq makes it even more startling. That […]

Does Canada need its independent center on rights and democracy, which it just closed? Two perspectives. In 20 years if work on conflict, fragile states, international security and development in and around the UN, I’ve never encountered it. Never once. Second: if promoting rights and democracy aren’t core mandate of DFAIT and CIDA, what on […]

Should the Bank consider non-Americans for their President? Perhaps, but the issue isn’t as dire as the commentariat suppose. The argument for opening up the selection process follows two lines. First, international institutions should have access to the best possible talent, irrespective of nationality. Second, the emerging economies, newly influential on the world stage, deserve […]

Of course not. So let’s immediately suspend all business with China and Russia. Few African states don’t have some corruption challenges, so they’re gone too. If we’re going to hold to very high standards, we’d probably have to acknowledge that Italy doesn’t quite hit the mark on anti-corruption. Most of Latin America’s OK, except for […]

Netanyahu has a dilemma. Part of him would like to trip Obama up during the election campaign, when he knows that Obama can’t afford to stand by if Israel does move to strike Iran. But only 19% of the Israeli public support such a move. A vast majority of Israelis believe that a nuclear Iran […]

The issue is overblown. It’s based on a premise that several of the rising powers use state ownership of capital or state companies to edge out the global competition. Let’s look at the numbers. US government share of GDP is just above 19%; that of Brazil, two points lower, at 17%. China and India are […]

The issue is overblown. It’s based on a premise that several of the rising powers use state ownership of capital or state companies to edge out the global competition. Let’s look at the numbers. US government share of GDP is just above 19%; that of Brazil, two points lower, at 17%. China and India are […]

No. The international market for energy is expanding in multiple directions, and it’s a global market. Ultimately, it makes far less difference where Canada sells its energy, than at what price – and that’s driven by global demand, not specific markets. There’s a growing strand of energy nationalism, but it reflects deep misunderstandings of the […]

No. The international market for energy is expanding in multiple directions, and it’s a global market. Ultimately, it makes far less difference where Canada sells its energy, than at what price – and that’s driven by global demand, not specific markets. There’s a growing strand of energy nationalism, but it reflects deep misunderstandings of the […]

One of the growing fallacies of the emerging international order is that it’s all about the regions. (See Ian Bremmer, and Nadar Mousavizadeh.) Really? So why was NATO involved in Libya? Why is China threatening Iran on the Straits of Hormuz? Why hasn’t the Arab League solved Syria? Why does Europe – of all places […]

Commanding NATO’s operations in Libya, under a UN Security Council mandate for the responsibility to protect, from the end of March 2011 onwards. There were lots of mistakes made in NATO’s management of this mandate. Notably, having been given the mandate by the UNSC, a total failure to keep informed or consult with the non-NATO […]

One of the West’s gravest weaknesses, at a time of transition and turmoil, is its tendency to view the world through the prism of highly abbreviated timelines that correspond neither to what’s realistic in other countries nor even our own long history of turbulent transformation. Democracy was born in the West over two hundred years […]

It’s sad but true that Europe seems to act most effectively when under pressure from outside forces. The analog is the way that IMF governance reform was handled. Everyone involved knew that the goal was to give the emerging economies more seats on the Board; and that to make that happen, Europe had to give […]

Yes; or make them worse. Most technologies are content free. The history of media – especially widely distributed media – is that it can power social forces both good and ill. Political entrepreneurs will race to use them for mobilization – whether for social justice, or mass atrocity, remains to be seen. Radio, for example, was […]

No. It has often taken crises to cause Europe to lurch ahead, often inelegantly. The Eurozone crisis is no exception. What’s the main reaction of Europe’s financial and political elites to the threat of potential unraveling? Not a retreat to nationalism. Rather, a proposal for deeper fiscal union. It’s too early to tell whether Europe’s […]

It’s the counsel of despair.  A General Assembly vote, which the PA will win, won’t create a state; a Security Council vote will, but that the PA will lose. So why are they going for it? Because they face rising popular pressure for change, as Ramallah watches the Arab Spring. Because neither the PA nor […]

Selling Canadian goods and services to the Chinese market. Along with every western country out there. He’s right, for two reasons. First, although we don’t know exactly what produces change in authoritarian states, there’s good evidence that free trade and integration to the global economy helps. China is grappling with the question of how to […]

No. Creating new states out of existing ones is exceedingly hard, and the creation of South Sudan happened only after 30 years of war and more than 2 million dead. Since the end of the Cold War, only one other African case has been resolved this way, namely the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia – […]

I’m a Canadian living between New York and Washington, where I work with the UN, Brookings and NYU. I track foreign policy issues from Afghanistan to the Arab Spring to the rise of new powers. So perhaps it’s a worrying sign for Canadian foreign policy that when I saw this week’s question, “What issue should John […]