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The Next Minister of Defence?

Roland Paris | June 12, 2012
The New Minister of Defence?

I don’t normally follow Canadian politics closely enough to play the parlour game of predicting the winners and losers of the next cabinet shuffle, but sometimes you get a hunch worth wagering on, and this is one of those times. I’d bet a whole dollar that John Baird will be moved from the Department of Foreign Affairs to National Defence this summer.

Look at it from the prime minister’s standpoint. He needs a minister of defence who can weather the political storm that’s gathering around the department. Projected costs of the controversial F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will probably continue to rise, which is terrible news for the Tories, who have attempted to build their brand on fiscal discipline. As Postmedia’s Lee Berthiaume reported yesterday, however, even the enormous price tag on the F-35 acquisition is dwarfed by the government’s $35-billion shipbuilding plan, which is already behind schedule. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is too smart not to see the great political risks.

John Baird is the toughest minister in Harper’s lineup. Yet, the prime minister’s loyal consigliore has been over at the Department of Foreign Affairs doing … well, it’s not entirely clear what Baird has been doing. His big project – a new Office of Religious Freedom – has been delayed, but will presumably be launched very soon, liberating him to perform more challenging tasks elsewhere.

This would be reason enough for Baird to be considered a strong candidate for minister of defence, but there’s more: Harper seems to think a conflict with Iran is possible, and he surely knows the situation in Syria is unpredictable. If the prime minister believes there’s any chance that the Canadian Forces will go into action in the Middle East, he will want a rock-solid defence minister in place.

Now for the clincher: As foreign affairs minister, Baird has been following the Syrian and Iranian situations closely, and he has been the government’s chief interlocutor with Israel. He would need little preparation to dive into the job of defence minister. If anything, his appointment to the Department of National Defence would communicate continuity in Canadian foreign policy. Critics of the government’s foreign policy would not find comfort in continuity, of course, but from the prime minister’s standpoint, it would make sense.

 So, who would replace Baird as foreign affairs minister? Well, that would require another bet – and one dollar is the most I’m willing to put into this game.

Photo courtesy of Reuters

  • http://saideman.blogspot.com/ Steve Saideman

    How about next CDS?

  • Jim Cox

    Here’s my hunches … intended to provoke and excite!

    Minister of National Defence – Rona Ambrose (or, it could be Peter Van Loan)
    Chief of the Defence Staff – VAdm Bruce Donaldson (current Vice CDS)
    New Vice CDS – LGen Peter Devlin
    New Commander of the Army – LGen Jon Vance (on promotion from MGen)

    … but then again, I was cheering for the New Jersey Devils.

  • DAVIDWEUM

    DEFENCE MINISTER PETER MACKAY HAS BEEN ASLEEP AT THE SWITCH. HE HAS BEEN DISHONORABLE IN RESPECT OF THE F-35 IN ALL ITS CONTROVERSIES. HE MUST GO. JOHN BAIRD, SEEEMILY UNVARNISHED AS HE IS, WOULD BE MY CHOICE. AND HE IS C.D. HOWE INCARNATE. THE ONLY THING THAT MAY BE RISKY IS HIS LIKELYHOOD OF GOING OFF THE RESERVATION. AND HE SHOULD LOOK AT THE MAP OF THE MIDDLE EAST. ISREAL IS NOT THE ONLY CANADA FRIENDLY ACTOR IN THAT DISFUNCTIONAL PART OF THE WORLD. AND I HOPE HE DOESN’T TALK TOO BIG GIVEN THAT OUR FORCES ARE ILL EQUIPPED WITH TOO FEW TRAINED SOLDIERS TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. INDEED, BECAUSE OUR FIGHTING FORCES ARE SO SMALL WE MAY BE PUTTING WHAT FIGHTERS WE DO HAVE IN VERY VULNERABLE SITUATIONS. AND THIS FAILURE WILL BE AN ORPHAN, THE DND HAS A HUGE MISALLOCATED BUDGET..WE CERTAINLY ARE LOATHE TO PAY ENOUGH SOLDIERS TO FIGHT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH. MAYBE MINISTER BAIRD COULD RADICALLY CHANGE DND’S SPENDING PRIORITIES WHICH IS SO DEARLY REQUIRED. A FACTOID TO PROVE MY POINT….THE 2011 BUDGET SLICED 1100 TRAINED SOLDIERS FROM THE DND PAYROLL. ONE WONDERS WHICH BUREACRATIC STIFF MADE THAT MOVE. HE’S LIKELY STILL THERE BEING OVERPAID. NO, THE NEGATIVES ARE TOO GREAT TO GIVE IT THE PROPER TREATMENT HERE.I GUESS, TO PREVENT THE HEMORRHAGING OF THE PERENNIAL MISMANAGEMENT OF DND, ANY CHANGE IS A GOOD CHANGE. WE MUST TRIPLE OUR RECRUITMENT FOR THE ARMY AND CUT OUT THE BUREACRACY. I THINK I READ A STAT THAT WEE, LITTLE CANADA, HAD MORE GENERAL OFFICERS PER GRUNT BY FAR, THAN ANY ARMY IN THE WORLD. .

    I HOPE HE CHOPS THE TOP 15 LAYERS OF BUREAUCRACY AT DND. MY GOODNESS, WE CAN’T EVEN FIELD MORE THAN A FEW BATTALIONS OVER TIME IN THE EVENT OF HOSTILITIES OF ANY SCALE “OVER THERE”. SO, I HOPE HE COMES TO GRIPS WITH THIS FACT. AND THE AIRFORCE, PROFESSIONAL AS IT MOST CERTAINLY IS, CAN ONLY CONTRIBUTE A TOKEN PRESENCE. SO WE ARE BEST TO KEEP OURSELVES FIRMLY PLANTED IN THE REALITY OF OUR LLIMITED LIKELY MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS IN THAT PART OF THE WORLD.

    OUR NAVY CAN PROVIDE COASTAL SURVEILLANCE AS WE DO NOW, INTIMIDATING PIRATES AND DISCOURAGING ILLEGAL ARMS SHIPMENTS, BUT ONLY IN THE EVENT OF HOSTILITIES, TO BE SURE. BUT, FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE, DON’T EXPECT OUR NAVY TO ENGAGE IN COMBAT.

    NEW BLOOD IS REQUIRED FOR THE DND’S TOP JOB. BAIRD OR NOT. PERHAPS AS A NOVELTY, SOMEONE WHO HAS THOUGHTS OF HAVING AN ARMED FORCES WITH MORE TRAINED FIGHTERS THAN ADMINISTRATORS TO JUSTIFY AN ANNUAL $27 BILLION AND COUNTING, BUDGET.